Environmental Dimension
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MEGATREND: CLIMATE CHANGE
TRENDS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Air pollution has the potential to significantly impact urban areas, representing a primary environmental health concern according to the European Environment Agency (EEA) [1]. A considerable portion of European water sources derived from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater lacks ecological sustainability, posing a threat to urban centers [2]. The EEA reports that approximately 2.8 million sites in Europe, contaminated by soil pollution from industrial sites, landfills, and agricultural areas, result in an annual economic cost exceeding €50 billion for the EU [3].
Water, air and soil pollution
Human-driven global warming, fueled by activities like fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, is a critical global concern. Notably, 2020 was the second-hottest year on record, with the five hottest years occurring since 2015 [4]. Climate researchers project a potential increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius in the coming decade compared to pre-industrial times, with associated risks including a sea level rise of 28.98 cm in the 21st century [5, 6].
Global warming
*Each trend is represented by some of the statistics that have been collected during the first part of the project.
RISKS FOR SUPPLY CHAINS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
The probability (P) and impact (I) of the different risks identified are categorized according to 5 degrees (very low, low
, medium
, high
and very high
). The risks have been assessed during the project based on literature analysis and validated with support of experts.
MEGATREND: RESOURCE SCARCITY
TRENDS RELATED TO RESOURCE SCARCITY
Europe, with limited natural resources, faces diminishing reserves exacerbated by economic development. Additionally, the scarcity of raw materials is further compounded by potential tensions and restrictions [7]. At the same time, by 2050 it is expected that the demand for food will increase by 60% and for water by 20-30% [8].
Lack of Resources such as water, land, energy, food and rare earth element
Energy Demand
Semiconductors are integral to nearly every electronic device. Despite economic and industrial recovery post-pandemic, a shortage of semiconductor chips persists, causing disruptions across various industries. Popular devices, including smartphones and cars, face extended lead times of up to a year [10]. Challenges in the automotive industry are anticipated to persist until 2026 [11].
Semiconductor Shortage
*Each trend is represented by some of the statistics that have been collected during the first part of the project.
RISKS FOR SUPPLY CHAINS DERIVED FROM RESOUCE SCARCITY
The probability (P) and impact (I) of the different risks identified are categorized according to 5 degrees (very low🔵, low🟢 , medium🟡, high🟠 and very high🔴). The risks have been assessed during the project based on literature analysis and validated with support of experts.
Suggested References:
[1] European environment agency, “Air pollution”, 2023, https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/air-pollution (accessed May 16, 2023).
[2] European environment agency, “Ecological status of surface waters in Europe,” 2021. https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/ecological-status-of-surface-waters (accessed May 15, 2023).
[3] European Environment Agency, “Soil,” 2023. https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/soil (accessed May 15, 2023).
[4] Met Office, “Klima: Durchschnittliche Temperaturschwankungen 1850-2021 | Statista,” 2021. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1073559/umfrage/durchschnittliche-temperaturschwankungen-land-meer/ (accessed May 16, 2023).
[5] W. J. Ripple et al., “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021,” Bioscience, vol. 71, no. 9, pp. 894–898, Sep. 2021, doi: 10.1093/BIOSCI/BIAB079.
[6] European environment agency, “The european environment – state and outlook 2020”, 2019, doi: 10.2800/96749
[7] EUR-Lex – 52019DC0014 – EN – EUR-Lex,” 2019. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52019DC0014 (accessed May 16, 2023).
[8] A. Boretti and L. Rosa, “Reassessing the projections of the World Water Development Report,” npj Clean Water 2019 2:1, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1–6, Jul. 2019, doi: 10.1038/s41545-019-0039-9.
[9] Y. Tan, F. Hai, J. Popp, and J. Oláh, “Minimizing Waste in the Food Supply Chain: Role of Information System, Supply Chain Strategy, and Network Design,” Sustainability 2022, Vol. 14, Page 11515, vol. 14, no. 18, p. 11515, Sep. 2022, doi: 10.3390/SU141811515.
[10] U. E. M. I. und T. Bundesministerium Klimaschutz, “EU-Kunststoffstrategie,” 2023. https://www.bmk.gv.at/themen/klima_umwelt/kunststoffe/europ_kunststoffstrategie.html (accessed May 16, 2023).
[11] “World Energy Outlook 2020 – Analysis – IEA,” 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020 (accessed May 16, 2023).
[12] B. Vakil and T. Linton, “Why We’re in the Midst of a Global Semiconductor Shortage,” 2021. https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor-shortage (accessed May 17, 2023).
[13] A. Aakash et al., “Examining the Automotive Semiconductor Shortage | BCG,” 2022. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/tracking-next-phase-automotive-semiconductor-shortage (accessed May 16, 2023).





